R12 Raw-260k Operation-Selection Likelihood Result

Status: complete, hash-bound, negative cursor-awareness diagnostic.

Bottom line

The free-decoding cursor probe was format-confounded, so this separately frozen diagnostic scored only four exact one-token operation candidates with one model forward per prompt. Newton job 689796 completed all 528/528 forwards and the independent full-result reconstruction passed.

The full-source arm is 80/176 = 45.45%, versus 64/176 = 36.36% for both residual controls. That aggregate improvement is not evidence of an internal operation scheduler. The full-source prediction changes across cursors in only 1/112 adjacent cursor transitions and only 1/64 multi-step sources. It recovers the complete operation schedule in 0/64 sources. It predicts add 145 times, subtract 31 times, and never predicts multiply or remainder. Fifteen of sixteen multiply-subtract sources receive subtract at both cursors. The apparent gain is therefore a family-level lexical preference for subtract, not cursor-indexed schedule recovery.

Raw 260k remains an externally steerable executor. It does not contain the source compiler, cursor-dependent action policy, state transport, or halt policy needed for autonomous reasoning.

Custody

The wrapper wrote and fsynced a score-free receipt before publishing either score-bearing copy. That receipt was mirrored locally, validated, committed, and pushed before the result was downloaded or opened. The local result hash matches the receipt.

Exact aggregate results

The paired full-source comparison has 16 correctness gains and zero losses against either control. The exact two-sided sign/McNemar probability is 2 / 65536 = 0.000030517578125. This establishes that source text changes the restricted operation preference. It does not establish cursor-sensitive selection because all 16 gains are the second subtract step in the same multiply-subtract family.

Full-source confusion matrix

The median gold margin to the best incorrect candidate is negative (-0.5659969 logit), and the mean is -0.3044649. Every prompt has a unique restricted top-1, so ties do not explain the failure. Per-operation recall is 100% add, 50% subtract, 0% multiply, and 0% remainder, for 37.5% macro recall.

Cursor and family analysis

All 112/112 adjacent gold operations change. The model changes its prediction on only 1/112 of those transitions, and no source has a fully correct predicted schedule. The residual controls change in 0/112. Full-source micro-accuracy also exactly equals the best family-constant and best index-constant shortcut baselines, both 80/176. A controller must distinguish operation order within a fixed source; a family or position classifier cannot do that.

Decision

This result closes the branch that assumed a pre-existing model-owned operation signal could simply be stitched to the known atomic executor and a stop token. No full controller fit is authorized from this diagnostic.

The next smallest admissible intervention is a separately preregistered counterfactual cursor-action induction canary. It must use operation-order twins with the same lexical inventory, cursor swaps within each source, paraphrase invariance, source-blind and ordinary completion-loss controls, and an exact held-out cursor-sensitivity gate. Training may target only control boundaries; it may not use gold state at inference or modify the protected flagship. Before any uninterrupted-chain experiment, it must show all of:

1. held-out source+cursor operation selection beyond the majority and matched completion-loss controls;
2. operation-order-twin separation rather than family-word classification;
3. cursor-dependent predictions on sources with multiple distinct operations;
4. preservation of the raw atomic executor; and
5. a separately trained and tested DONE/EOS boundary.

Passing that canary would establish only a learned action policy. Autonomous reasoning still requires one uninterrupted model call that carries state, advances its own cursor, executes each action, and halts without an external scheduler, parser, repair loop, or verifier.