R12 State-Bound Operation-Family Arbiter Preregistration

Status: completed and rejected at the frozen gate; local family line closed Contract: shohin-ettr-parallel-terminal-state-contract-v20
Promotion gate: at least 90% independent held-out operation-family exactness
Reasoning gate: unchanged source-deleted WORLD and COMMAND strict pairs

Measured reason for the mechanism

The corrected full-corpus audit covers 494,480 training and 60,512 development operations. Its development conditional-oracle family accuracies are:

Exact state values therefore contain enough information to cross the frozen 90% family gate, but a smoothed additive factor model remains at 73.7110% in all three modes. LINK is perfectly separated; the residual ambiguity is NONE versus WRITE. Exact composite signature lookup is not viable because only 18.7864% of development operations have a train-seen exact syntax-plus-state signature.

The audit report file SHA-256 is 819aa0bdb57b3e46fcf1488323d17e18fd3668db277d4404ed685f76a69b75c5; its payload SHA-256 is 0a5574bf499440fe4a3ca47d80b08d39e9177e76343ecb8f6a3304f0247ea517.

Hypothesis

The public operation roles identify what should be compared, while exact typed-state values determine whether that operation is a semantic NONE or WRITE. Pooled addition can represent each side independently but does not force their binding. A role-conditioned bilinear lookup should expose the missing interaction without supervising answers, terminal states, or programs at inference.

Architecture

OperationStateBoundFamilyGatedWriteLinkCompiler preserves v19's compiler, recurrent operation boundary, hard NONE/WRITE/LINK gate, and typed payload rails. It changes only the family arbiter:

1. Re-encode the exact current typed state into one memory vector per slot.
2. Project each public semantic-role anchor into multihead queries.
3. Project current state slots into keys and values.
4. Compute role-to-slot bilinear compatibility and attended state values.
5. Concatenate role, attended state, and their elementwise product.
6. Pool only valid roles and predict exactly one NONE/WRITE/LINK family.

The production compiler has 50,594,556 parameters, 1,576,448 more than v19; the complete system is 206,533,450 parameters. The user has removed the old 200M ceiling. This increase is nevertheless tied to one measured causal purpose and is not evidence by itself.

Information boundary

Inference may read only the autonomous current typed state and public COMMAND tokens/residuals. It may not read QUERY, answers, target packets, successor states, transaction programs, assessor traces, candidate scores, or a host semantic solver. Oracle preceding states are allowed only as family-island training labels. The immutable evaluator and fixed state algebra remain unchanged.

Training isolation

The first v20 arm is family-only. WRITE/LINK count, pointer, value, relation, and payload-rail parameters are bypassed, and the runtime gradient guard must prove they receive no gradient. Training remains class-balanced over NONE/WRITE/LINK. Terminal and causal outputs from random payload rails cannot promote the family island.

Fixed route

1. Complete corrected v15 and its independent seed-13 evaluation first.
2. If v15's family accuracy is at least 90%, do not run v19 or v20; route the measured payload failure.
3. If v15 family fails, run exactly one v19 family-island fit.
4. If v19 reaches at least 90%, preserve its weights and release joint rails; do not run v20.
5. If v19 misses 90%, run exactly one matched v20 family-island fit.
6. If v20 reaches at least 90%, preserve its weights and release joint rails.
7. If v20 misses 90%, reject standalone NONE/WRITE/LINK control and compile typed effects through direct latent expert competition. Do not repeat a wider, longer, or reseeded pooled/bilinear family classifier.

Only a later joint system that improves both WORLD and COMMAND strict paired gates on independent source-deleted populations can count as native reasoning.

Mechanical evidence before GPU admission

• Exact-value counterfactuals change family probabilities with fixed syntax.
• Family loss sends finite nonzero gradients through role queries, state keys/values, the multiplicative projection, and typed value embeddings.
• Family-island end-to-end tests leave all WRITE/LINK payload parameters gradient-free.
• Train, evaluator, router, and Slurm launcher agree on contract v20 and its fixed pass/fail route.

V20 was authorized only after v19 failed and was run exactly once. This preserved single-writer scientific attribution and the preregistered endpoint.

The immutable Newton runtime is scratchpad/shohin_ettr_state_bound_family_runtime_898591c_r1, bound to source 898591cf5861cbff2aef2a293a89347c7fea8bcd. Its 3,658 files pass complete checksum replay with zero links and zero writable entries. The SHA256SUMS SHA-256 is 73b82ec26467de405ccd7d32ff4031cb0fbacd394c2708ebba355d86cec3d484.

Measured closure

The finite campaign selected v19 and then v20. Both completed all 1,000 updates in bfloat16 and both failed the independent seed-13 gate identically: operation-family exactness 464/1856 = 25%, 100% predicted NOOP, exact terminal packets 0/512, WORLD strict 0/48, and COMMAND strict 0/144. V19 final compiler SHA-256 is 9b741d392c149b1e32bc4040621d603d93dd05c5a25759ae7df580150d445457; v20 final compiler SHA-256 is 0aba95f47bc4c0263872dd1e512798fae26c18fbee2f5b92d9295a2f71d1834f. The final planner action is stop; v21 was correctly not launched.

Postmortem auditing found that the 94.0756% conditional oracle and the neural fit did not share an equivalent input or optimizer distribution. The oracle uses an exact symbolic resolver over public COMMAND structure plus exact preceding-state factors. V20 instead learns from language residuals, pooled public role anchors, and a learned typed-state encoding; equivalence was never measured. More decisively, every one of the 100 logged checkpoints in both fits omits at least one target family, 33% contain exactly one family, and LINK appears in only 33% of logged batches. At update 499 an all-LINK batch is fit essentially perfectly; the final batch is 75% NONE, 25% WRITE, 0% LINK, and the final model emits NOOP everywhere. The exact trace audits are artifacts/r12/v19_operation_family_stream_drift.json and artifacts/r12/v20_operation_family_stream_drift.json.

This does not reopen v20. Standalone family control remains rejected under the frozen rules. It changes the capability-floor launch requirements: the new unified trajectory must first prove symbolic-to-neural interface sufficiency and use deterministic replay-balanced optimizer windows so one semantic regime cannot erase another.